Coronavirus pandemic as a threat to national security: a prospective view

Abstract

The scenario methodology has as main objective, through scientific nalysis, to build plausible hypotheses of events that may occur in the future. Thus assisting the adoption of measures and the implementation of long-termplans, programs and projects that neutralize or minimize the impact that these events may have on institutions, companies and countries. At the potentially catastrophic level, it is very common for pandemics to be analyzed by scenario analysis tools. Through a case study, understanding how the virus spread in China and how it became a pandemic and analyzing in detail the Chinese government's mistakes and successes since the first patient infected with the Coronavirus were hospitalized, will offer relevant inputs for the reviews of future defense scenarios in Brazil and will assist decision-making processes that include training in security and biological defense, the creation of contingency plans, national epidemic crisis response programs and emergency funds to combat pandemics.