Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm: A Bioinspired Metaheuristic Based on the COVID-19 Propagation Model.

Abstract

This study proposes a novel bioinspired metaheuristic simulating how the coronavirus spreads and infects healthy people. From a primary infected individual (patient zero), the coronavirus rapidly infects new victims, creating large populations of infected people who will either die or spread infection. Relevant terms such as reinfection probability, super-spreading rate, social distancing measures, or traveling rate are introduced into the model to simulate the coronavirus activity as accurately as possible. The infected population initially grows exponentially over time, but taking into consideration social isolation measures, the mortality rate, and number of recoveries, the infected population gradually decreases. The coronavirus optimization algorithm has two major advantages when compared with other similar strategies. First, the input parameters are already set according to the disease statistics, preventing researchers from initializing them with arbitrary values. Second, the approach has the ability to end after several iterations, without setting this value either. Furthermore, a parallel multivirus version is proposed, where several coronavirus strains evolve over time and explore wider search space areas in less iterations. Finally, the metaheuristic has been combined with deep learning models, to find optimal hyperparameters during the training phase. As application case, the problem of electricity load time series forecasting has been addressed, showing quite remarkable performance.