Coordinated analysis and evaluation of water–energy–food coupling: A case study of the Yellow River basin in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Water resources, energy, and food are important basic resources for high-quality regional development. In the process of rapid development of regional economy, how to coordinate the development of basic resources has become one of the most serious challenges to the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin and even the whole Yellow River basin in Shandong province. Previous studies have produced few such analyses and evaluations for cities in the Yellow River basin, and there is a lack of research on multi-scale analysis, evaluation and prediction of urban coupling and coordinated development level. Hence, in this study, we propose an indicator system consisting of 24 indicators for the water resources, energy, and food system based on panel data for 9 cities in the Yellow River basin in Shandong Province for 2011–2020. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal and spatial distribution analysis were used to determine the current state of water resources, energy, and food systems at multiple scales; combined weighting, comprehensive evaluation, and coupling coordination quantification were used to formulate the coupling coordination relationships of water resources–energy–food and identify the spatiotemporal formation and development of the water resources–energy–food system. A particle swarm optimization–back propagation model (PSO-BP) was used to predict the coupled and coordinated changes in the water resources–energy–food system for the next five years. The study results show that: (1) The composite index of the water resources–energy–food system showed an increasing trend, and the composite index of the food subsystem increased relatively quickly. (2) In 2020, the coupling coordination degree for eight of the nine cities in the Yellow River basin in Shandong Province was 0.70. Jinan, the exception, was at a critical stage of transitioning from low to moderate coupling, and the other eight cities were at the moderate stage of coupling coordination. (3) The coupling coordination of the water resources–energy–food system is increasing; it has transitioned from low to moderate and is about to transition to the stage of good coupling coordination. (4) The PSO-BP model predicted that the coupling coordination of water resources–energy–food systems in the Yellow River basin in Shandong Province will reach the stage of good coupling coordination in 2023. The research results presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for formulating policy recommendations in the Yellow River basin in Shandong Province.