Coupled coordination spatiotemporal analyses inform sustainable development and environmental protection for the Yellow River Basin of China

Abstract

Multiple nonlinear interactions exist between economic growth, urbanization construction, water resources, and industrial development (EUWI) within a region. To achieve the national goals of ecological protection and high-quality development within the Yellow River Basin of China, it is imperative to establish a clear understanding of the principles that govern these interactions and the level of coupling coordination development that exists within this region. Using data from 2011 to 2020, we quantitatively assessed the operation mechanisms of the EUWI system in nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin. First, a coupling coordination index was developed to measure the coordination relationships within the EUWI system. Next, a random forest method was used to identify the obstacle factors of the coupling coordination development in the EUWI system. Finally, a gray prediction model GM (1,1) was established to predict the development trends of the system in the subsequent five years. Our results show that: (1) the coupling coordination of the EUWI system in the Yellow River Basin improved has steadily improved over the study period, with the southeast region exhibiting a higher level of the coupling coordination than the other areas; (2) gross domestic product, research and development personnel, and the total amount of sewage treated are the main factors affecting the coupling coordination development of the EUWI system; and (3) the coupling coordination indices of the nine provinces will continue to rise from 2021 to 2025, with eight of the nine provinces (excluding Inner Mongolia) expected to reach their peak values in either 2023 or 2025. These results offer valuable insight for China's efforts to promote ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.