Abstract

ABSTRACTStrategies for filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and implications for downstream water resources are analyzed using a river basin planning model with a wide range of historical hydrological conditions and increasing coordination between the co-riparian countries. The analysis finds that risks to water diversions in Sudan can be largely managed through adaptations of Sudanese reservoir operations. The risks to Egyptian users and energy generation can be minimized through combinations of sufficient agreed annual releases from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a drought management policy for the High Aswan Dam, and a basin-wide cooperative agreement that protects the elevation of Lake Nasser.

Highlights

  • The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile offers a unique and timely opportunity for cooperation among the Eastern Nile countries of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt

  • The study demonstrates that under the assumed hydrologic conditions and non-increasing demands during the filling period, the risks to existing downstream consumptive uses and hydropower generation can be managed with the combination of an agreed annual release from the GERD, proactive reoperation of the Sudanese reservoirs, implementation of a drought management policy for the High Aswan Dam (HAD), and a safeguard release from the GERD if the HAD pool elevation falls below a critical level

  • Much dialogue and analysis have taken place regarding the GERD and its potential downstream benefits and impacts, there remains a need for specific arrangements to manage the process of filling the GERD

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Summary

Introduction

The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile offers a unique and timely opportunity for cooperation among the Eastern Nile countries of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. While the potential benefits of the GERD for Ethiopia and surrounding countries in improved electrification are apparent (EDF & Scott Wilson, 2007), questions of how the GERD will affect water supply and power generation in downstream countries has been the focus of ongoing debates among numerous stakeholders and institutions both internal and external to the basin. We acknowledge the historically rich and geopolitically complex situation that currently exists in the region. A review of existing design documents by an international panel of experts indicated the need for further analysis of the period during which the 74 billion cubic metre (BCM) storage reservoir behind the GERD will initially be filled (IPoE, 2013).

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