Anatomy of the 2016 drought in the Northeastern United States: Implications for agriculture and water resources in humid climates

Abstract

2016 was one of the warmest and driest summers on record throughout much of the Northeastern United States (Northeast). Additionally, historically low winter snowfall preceding the summer of 2016 exacerbated drought conditions and led to record low streamflows in some regions. Climate models suggest that short-term summer droughts could increase in frequency and continue to pose challenges to farmers and water resource managers in the Northeast. Here we focus on the impacts of the drought on farmers in New York State (NY), an economically important agricultural state in the Northeast. We found that in several regions across NY 2015-16 winter snowfall, and 2016 growing season precipitation and streamflows were near or below the 10th percentile of the previous 60 years; and 2016 air temperatures were near or above the 90th percentile of the previous 60 years. Based on survey results, more than 70% of the 275 farmers surveyed across NY reported rainfed field crop and pasture yield losses greater than 30%, with some loses over 90%. In the hardest hit Western region of NY, substantial crop losses (>30%) were reported for fruit and vegetable crops on farms with irrigation, due to limited irrigation equipment and water supplies (e.g. low streamflows, dry ponds or wells). After what they experienced in 2016, 32% of the 75 farmers in follow-up interviews invested in irrigation equipment and water sources in 2016, and 32% said they plan to do so in 2017. Thirty-two percent of farmers in follow-up interviews said they plan to take measures to improve soil health and soil organic matter to improve water holding capacity and better prepare for drought. Model estimates suggest NY state-wide crop irrigation water use could increase by 3–8 times in dry years compared to average growing seasons, increasing seasonal usage by millions of cubic meters. This highlights the potential for significant increases in water withdrawals in NY, with implications for water resources, particularly as the climate changes.