Cooperating Graph Neural Networks with Deep Reinforcement Learning for Vaccine Prioritization.

Abstract

This study explores the vaccine prioritization strategy to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic when the supply is limited. Existing vaccine distribution methods focus on macro-level or simplified micro-level assuming homogeneous behavior within populations without considering mobility patterns. Directly applying these models for micro-level vaccine allocation leads to sub-optimal solutions. To address the issue, we first proposed a Trans-vaccine-SEIR model to incorporate mobility heterogeneity in disease propagation. Then we develop a novel deep reinforcement learning to seek the optimal vaccine allocation strategy for the disease evolution system. The graph neural network is used to effectively capture the structural properties of the mobility network and extract disease features. In our evaluation, the proposed framework reduces 7% - 10% of infections and deaths compared to the baseline strategies. Extensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework is robust to seek the optimal vaccine allocation with diverse mobility patterns. In particular, we find transit usage restriction is significantly more effective than restricting cross-zone mobility for the top 10% age-based and income-based zones under optimal vaccine allocation strategy. These results provide valuable insights for areas with limited vaccines and low logistic efficacy.