Convergent set-based design for complex resilient systems

Abstract

The Department of Defense Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) goes beyond the concept of resilience as a response to a disruption. The ERS project focuses on improving design agility and cost-effectiveness leading to improvements in systems analysis, development, testing, manufacturing, and fielding of mission-effective and adaptable systems. Point-Based Design (PBD) seeks to select a point as a design baseline and proceed into development. Our research uses Set-Based Design (SBD) for early concept evaluation of engineered systems as an alternative to PBD. SBD seeks to eliminate less cost-effective sets (in the value vs. cost tradespace) and focus on one or more remaining sets during early design. Our research develops a technique called Convergent Set-Based Design (SBD), a procedure for mathematical elimination and improvement of sets of designs. We developed Convergent SBD for the ERS program. Our research includes the capability to measure and quantify mission resilience using probability trees for all system performance measures. Convergent SBD uses dominance identification equations to compare statistical means for value and cost. The demonstration illustrates the effect of adding mission resilience in the design tradespace. Convergent SBD provides a foundational mathematical technique for eliminating less promising design sets and identifying the most promising design sets.