Convergence in energy consumption per capita across the US states, 1970–2013: An exploration through selected parametric and non-parametric methods

Abstract

Noting the paucity of studies of convergence in energy consumption across the US states, and the usefulness of a study that shares the spirit of the enormous research on convergence in energy-related variables in cross-country contexts, this paper explores convergence in per-capita energy consumption across the US states over the 44-year period 1970–2013. Several well-known parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored partly to shed light on the substantive question and partly to provide a comparative methodological perspective on these approaches. Several statements summarize the outcome of our explorations. First, the widely-used Barro-type regressions do not indicate beta-convergence during the entire period or any of several sub-periods. Second, lack of sigma-convergence is also noted in terms of standard deviation of logarithms and coefficient of variation which do not show a decline between 1970 and 2013, but show slight upward trends. Third, kernel density function plots indicate some flattening of the distribution which is consistent with the results from sigma-convergence scenario. Fourth, intra-distribution mobility (“gamma convergence”) in terms of an index of rank concordance suggests a slow decline in the index. Fifth, the general impression from several types of panel and time-series unit-root tests is that of non-stationarity of the series and thus the lack of stochastic convergence during the period. Sixth, therefore, the overall impression seems to be that of the lack of convergence across states in per-capita energy consumption. The present interstate inequality in per-capita energy consumption may, therefore, reflect variations in structural factors and might not be expected to diminish.