Convergence des vieillissements en Europe et retraites

Abstract

European ageing convergence and retirement pensions. Alexis Dantec. One of the most popular cause of difficulties for the retirement pension system is the future general ageing of the population. However, this ageing is much more complex than the growing old of an individual. It must be seen as dynamic, reversible and complex phenomenon. The increase of the mean age or the slowing-down of the population growth are only some indicators among others of this distortion of the demographic structure on behalf of the older. Whether the population is ageing on the top or at the basis, the consequences for the financial equi librium of the retirement funds are different. Moreover, this demographic phenomenon explains only one part of this equilibrium, as only the occupied active population actually contribute to the funds. The study of this general ageing in the fifteen European countries leads to the following conclusions. In long period, global convergence appears. But, in 1960, the demographic levels and dynamics were diffe rent in each country. Moreover, in some countries, the birth-rate and the migration movements notably improved around 1985 and the differences have become more marked in the short period. The past and future convergence of mortality and life expectancies are not sufficient to ensure the convergence of the general ageing process in immediate future. Hence, the difficulties of the retirement system due to this demo graphic phenomenon will not be of the same magnitude nor will they occur at the same date for all.