Abstract

China's traditionally nuclear missile force has added a conventional force component with an inventory of over 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles and an emerging class of theater ballistic and ground-launched cruise missiles. This growing conventional missile force provides Beijing an operational-tactical and strategic capability in theater without the political and practical constraints associated with nuclear-armed missiles. China's emerging inventory of conventional antiship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) affords its military an extra employment option enhancing its layered defense posture against potential offshore threats beyond Taiwan. The military's conventional missiles, operational doctrine, and threat perceptions create conditions for China's escalation to conventional missile attacks against U.S. or allied forces and bases in Asia, including ASBM strikes against U.S. Navy aircraft carriers in any hypothetical China–Taiwan conflict. China's senior leaders would be more likely to authorize such strikes if they endorse the missile force's perceptions of a severe threat to its operations from potential U.S. electronic warfare-based information operations and joint firepower attacks.

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