Abstract
The presence of received power fluctuations of underwater acoustic signals and noise is commonplace. This paper addresses the power fluctuations as measured at the output of a narrowband spectrum analyzer. The purpose of this paper is to develop and evaluate models of underwater sound fluctuations that can be used for short-term predictions. Conventional time series models were used, and short-term prediction errors were between 1.3 and 2.5 dB. A new binary time series is developed and results presented. The Binary Model predicts detections (+1) and no detections (-1). The forecast of detections/no detections with the Binary Model resulted in errors as low as eight percent for some of the sonar time series.
Published Version
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