Abstract
This paper examines the policy assumption that conventional arms transfers and the conflict behavior of 87 Third World countries are linked causally. It uses World Event Interaction Survey (WEIS) data and U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency data from 1967 through 1976 to measure conflict and arms transfers. Based on a series of regression analyses, the paper's principal conclusions are, in general, that conflict and arms transfers are not linked causally, that variations in the two variables occur simultaneously, and that a deeper understanding of Third World conflict processes is required before those processes can be controlled by reducing conventional arms transfers.
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