National Dependence and Public Perceptions: Understanding the Economic Determinants of Foreign Policy Preferences Toward China

Abstract

The relationship between economic dependence and foreign influence has become an increasingly prominent topic in International Relations. However, academic studies and public discussion largely overlook that dependence could influence not only states’ official policies but also the foreign policy preferences of their populations. In addition, they simplistically assume that material dependence directly establishes influence without considering additional complexities brought on by actors’ perceptions of such realities. This could lead to misunderstandings regarding the mechanisms through which economic dependence leads to foreign influence. The problem is especially glaring in relation to China, whose economic clout has been argued to represent a key vector of its global influence. This article studies how economic dependence shapes the foreign policy preferences of populations around the world and, thereby, constitutes a vector of China’s international influence. We use novel public opinion data from more than 79,000 respondents in 54 countries to clarify the relative weight of material economic realities and public perceptions of them in shaping foreign policy preferences toward China. In doing so, we also establish the relative extent to which individuals base their preferences on an egoistic or sociotropic sense of economic self-interest. Our results illustrate that perceptions outweigh economic realities in shaping preferences on China. Furthermore, economic dependence has no uniform effects on national populations, suggesting that its effects are primarily expressed through egotropic ways. Our results suggest that the disconnect between perceptions of China’s economic importance and material realities needs to be closely considered when studying China’s international influence.