Control Model for Hydrologic Safety of Flooded Territories

Abstract

The paper presents a control model of the hydrologic safety of inundated territories including - multi-layer geoinformation model of an inundated territory with real and simulated relief layers and a bed structure, settlements and transport infrastructure;- hydrodynamic model of flood development;- simulation model of population evaluation at the developing catastrophic territory flooding;- complex hierarchic model of hydrological safety control.The top hierarchy level of a complex control model locates a model of urbanization control for preventing the growth of hydrological risk at the social&economic territory development: territorial distribution of settlements and setting their critical dimensions as well as the development of a transport network as a factor of successful population evacuation. The middle level includes a model of the hydrotechnical projects of hydrological safety. The lower level consists of a control model of population evacuation (establishing self-evacuation directions and modes).Geoinformation and hydrodynamic simulation is conducted with the help of the software&algorithmic package Web-ECOGIS intended for the simulation of emergency situations at rivers and water storages as well as the simulation of season-related floods. The package uses modern GIS technology, parallel computations technologies OpenMP, MPI, CUDA. The vector maps of inundated territories in this package include the layers of relief, a hydrological system, social&economic infrastructure.The paper presents the results of scenario and simulation modelling for the development of two types of emergencies of catastrophic territory flooding in the northern part of the Volga&Akhtuba floodplain (VAFP): unexpected flooding of Volzhskaya HPP and sudden increase in spring flood intensity in the process of its development. The authors define the conditions of safe population evacuation and identify the most hazardous territories. The authors study the efficiency of the project on installing a locking dam at the base of the Volga and Akhtuba channel.