Contribution of predictive factors of land degradation occurrence applying maximum entropy model

Abstract

Land degradation (LD) is a significant environmental issue that needs to be spatially mapped in different areas. This research provides a framework to prioritize the geo-environmental and anthropogenic factors on LD in a semi-arid region, Qazvin Plain, in Iran based on the maximum entropy model for the first time and also to produce the LD hazard map. The LD inventory map that shows the occurrence points of LD was prepared based on the decreasing trend of net primary productivity (NPP) over 20 years. 120 random points were selected as degraded sites where NPP showed a decreasing trend. Several environmental and anthropogenic factors including temperature, rainfall, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation soil salinity index (VSSI), visible and shortwave infrared drought index (VSDI), electrical conductivity (EC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) of groundwater, groundwater table, annual depletion of groundwater resources, slope, aspect, and altitude were considered as predictive factors of LD and their relative contributions were determined using the maximum entropy model. According to the findings, 49.74% of the region was in the class of low degradation. Also, 22.57%, 17.87%, and 9.82% of the plain were related to the moderate, high, and very high degradation classes, respectively. The model specified altitude as the most significant variable influencing LD followed by land use, slope, and VSSI. The least important variable affecting LD in the study area was the aspect. The results of modeling LD also showed that the areas most sensitive to LD were frequently rangelands which are mostly found on steep slopes and highlands. Based on the UAC value, the model illustrated a very good efficiency with a value of 0.8. According to the results, the maximum entropy model successfully mapped the LD hazard in the Qazvin plain.