Contrasting corn acreage trends in the Midwest and Southeast: The role of yield, climate, economics, and irrigation

Abstract

The US corn area footprint has changed significantly since the 20th century, declining in the southeastern states while exhibiting an increase or stable variations in the Midwest. As harvested acreage directly impacts the total corn production, understanding the influencing factors is crucial. This study assesses the role of potential drivers on the contrasting trajectories of harvested corn acreage between midwestern and southeastern US. Profit-acreage analysis reveals that antecedent profits/losses have a statistically significant influence on corn acreage changes, with southeastern US, which experienced more loss-making years, also experiencing more frequent reductions in corn acreage. The high number of loss-making years in the Southeast is primarily attributed to the region's low corn yield, influenced by climate and other agro-environmental factors. Using a panel regression model, we find that the loss-making years in the Southeast could have reduced to fewer than 26 out of the considered 45 years, or almost similar to the average in the Midwest, by just increasing the irrigated corn area to 50 %, a realistic irrigated corn area fraction already achieved in several Georgia counties. This underscores the potential for early policy interventions like irrigation facilitation to sustain and expand cropped acreage. However, we also find that this would only be economically feasible with incentives for both the installation and sustained operation of irrigation infrastructure.