Continuous Strategy Development for Effects-Based Operations

Abstract

Abstract : The primary objective of this program was to develop the Strategy Development Tool (SDT), a system to aid the Strategy Division of an Air Operations Center (AOC) in authoring robust effects-based plans and assessing their impact on enemy systems. To this end, we conducted research and development in five major stages. First, we developed an EBO plan representation and plan authoring tool for decomposing strategic objectives into desired effects, causal linkages, and tasks. Second, we integrated this plan editor with AFRL's Causal Analysis Tool (CAT) for assessment of course of action probability of success over time. Third, we developed an interface to an operational-level target system analysis and option generation capability known as Endstate. Fourth, we developed a strategic-level Center of Gravity (COG) Articulator tool for building lightweight causal models of enemy systems, along with a methodology by which blue interventions against these systems could be analyzed in the CAT and causal chains of effects resulting from interventions could be automatically imported into the SDT plan editor. Finally, we hardened the existing SDT editors, developed additional capabilities for collaborative planning and assessment, and developed new external interfaces for Joint Expeditionary Force Experiment (JEFX) 2004 to support and AFRL-led EBO initiative. This culminated in the Government's decision to transition portions of SDT into Information Warfare Planning Capability (IWPC) to enhance its capabilities for effects-based planning and real-time collaboration.