Tools for Effects Based Course of Action Development and Assessment

Abstract

Abstract : Software tools are now available to assist the Air and Space Operations Center (AOC) with effects based Course of Action (COA) development, analysis, comparison and selection. In 2001, the Information Directorate of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) initiated an advanced technology demonstration program in the area of effects based operations. The program set out to develop new concepts and a software toolset to meet the AOC requirement for effects based targeting and campaign assessment. At the core of the toolset are the Strategy Development Tool (SDT) and Causal Analysis Tool (CAT). The Strategy Development Tool guides the user through the development of effects based COAs. During the initial planning phase, the Causal Analysis Tool predicts the probability of achieving commander's intent for the effects based COAs. During execution, the Causal Analysis Tool acts as a campaign assessment tool by incorporating accrued evidence provided by a multi-intelligence fusion component. An attrition-based campaign level wargaming tool was also developed to supplement COA analysis The goal is to transition the software tools to AOC strategists to help them achieve an effects based approach to the COA development process described in Joint Publication 3-30, Command and Control for Joint Air Operations. Though focused on air operations, the tools can be used at the Joint Force Command level as well.