Abstract
The present research takes into account the current and widespread need for rational valuation methodologies, able to correctly interpret the available market data. An innovative automated valuation model has been simultaneously implemented to three Italian study samples, each one constituted by two-hundred residential units sold in the years 2016–2017. The ability to generate a “unique” functional form for the three different territorial contexts considered, in which the relationships between the influencing factors and the selling prices are specified by different multiplicative coefficients that appropriately represent the market phenomena of each case study analyzed, is the main contribution of the proposed methodology. The method can provide support for private operators in the assessment of the territorial investment conveniences and for the public entities in the decisional phases regarding future tax and urban planning policies.
Highlights
In recent years, the awareness of the “value of the data” and its growing availability has determined an increasing diffusion of innovative techniques to measure, elaborate, and interrelate the detectable amount of information in all sectors
The floor on which the residential unit is located (F) constitutes an influencing factor on the selling prices in the models for the cities of Bari and Rome; in particular, the models have highlighted a significant increase of the unit housing price if the same property is “transferred” from the ground floor to the first floor (+15.38% for the Bari sample and +31.07% for the Rome case study), whereas the positive marginal contribution is lower for subsequent increments of the floor height (+3.4% for the city of Bari and +6.5% for the city of Rome)
Following the global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime, the present research takes into account the current need for rational valuation methodologies, able to correctly interpret the available market data and provide a quick check tool of the punctual assessments performed by the direct valuers that operate in the territory
Summary
The awareness of the “value of the data” and its growing availability has determined an increasing diffusion of innovative techniques to measure, elaborate, and interrelate the detectable amount of information in all sectors. The utility of the AVMs for urban planning and for contributing to the performance of urban information systems has been widely recognized [10], several authors have highlighted the danger of using “black boxes”, i.e., models that are not transparent and/or are difficult to be managed by less competent users [11,12], who are inevitably forced to rely on experts, even when they are not sure how good these experts are [13] This contingency points out the need for models of mass appraisal that are capable, on the one hand, of constantly modifying in the short-term according to the variations of the starting scenario conditions, and on the other hand, of satisfying the empirical reliability of the results obtained and of providing for functional relationships that are interpretable and repeatable in different territorial contexts, avoiding excessively complex solutions, which inevitably lead to an excessive automatism of the process and an increase of uncertainty for the end-user [14].
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