Abstract
The risk of climate change impacts occurring is a function of a socioecological system’s exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Vulnerability itself is the result of a system's sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The potential climate change driven biophysical impacts on the municipality Totonicapan in the western highlands of Guatemala are well documented in outcome vulnerability studies and projected to be severe. They include droughts, frosts, forest fires and life zone changes which also represent important hazards to the municipality’s population. Yet, recent detailed socioeconomic information on the municipality’s contextual vulnerability is scarce. Moreover, social capital which is central to the yet successful management of the unique communal coniferous forests is poorly understood. The present study evaluates the contextual vulnerability of the municipality's population and communal forests using 5 interviews and 167 household surveys from 3 communities for 15 socioeconomic indicators. Qualitative analysis of the interviews urges for further investigation into the link between emigration to the USA, the loss of social capital and communal forest management. Quantitative analysis of the indicators and their aggregation into a vulnerability index by Principal Component Analysis demonstrates that education is the most important vulnerability factor, followed by income which was negatively related to natural resource dependency. An overarching theme was gender inequality. The study is a plea for location and population specific research and adaptation strategies as it identifies significant differences even between communities of the same municipality.
Highlights
Adaptive capacity is the ability of the system to adjust to climate-related hazards and impacts (IPCC, 2014)
Whilst contextual vulnerability is determined by the socioeconomic characteristics of a human or ecological system, Hess / Contextual vulnerability of the communal forests and population of Totonicapán, Guatemala outcome vulnerability is analyzed exclusively in natural systems by modelling climate change related hazards and biophysical impacts in the present or future (Kelly and Adger, 2000; O’Brien et al, 2004a and 2007; Füssel and Klein, 2006; IPCC, 2014)
The five key informants agreed that the department and the municipality Totonicapán are still renowned for trade and wooden handicrafts
Summary
Outcome vulnerability and its implications for mitigation have historically dominated science and politics, contextual vulnerability is becoming increasingly important due to the inevitability of considerable biophysical climate change impacts (O’Brien et al, 2004a; Füssel and Klein, 2006). It is the contextual vulnerability approach which can addresses location and population specific details omitted in smallscale outcome vulnerability studies, and offer adaptation strategies for the population (Cutter, Boruff and Shirley, 2003; Adger, 2003 and 2006; O’Brien et al, 2007)
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