Construction Process Duration Predicted by Statistical Method

Abstract

Many construction projects today are planned and managed using computer technology. An integral part of the management of these projects is sophisticated software, which includes statistical probabilistic methods. The main task in this area is direct verification of the validity of planned labour productivity values during the construction process according to the recorded average performance values. Using selected statistical methods and analyses, a case study can document this type of undertaking, for example, in a selected masonry process in which the upper and lower limits of performance, i.e. the optimistic and pessimistic bounds, may be calculated with 95% probability. Evaluation of these performance parameters in the construction software used for this study showed a difference in time of 11 days at the end of the process. The figures indicated a 9.6% and 14.3% decrease in labour productivity, respectively, for the optimistic and pessimistic values compared to the construction software ’ s planned values. Repeated evaluation of performance can aid in improving labour productivity and attaining project milestones and subsequent construction deadlines during the construction process. This paper aims to confirm or refute this theoretical balance using probabilistic statistical methods and to emphasize the importance of statistical analysis in the real construction process with the use of the software.