Abstract
One of the key components of effective production organization at the enterprises of the radio electronic industry is the need to take into account the risk environment, and take measures to minimize the likelihood of risk occurrence. The main problem is the probabilistic nature of the manifestation of risk. The probability is manifested in the realization of the risk and its duration, which, in the final analysis, will lead to financial losses. The article proposes an approach to building the core of the system of technical and economic risks and their interrelationship in the organization of production at the enterprises of the radio electronic industry. In the article it is proposed to use basic modules for estimating the limiting probabilities of various states of technical and economic risks for which special systems of linear algebraic equations are developed. In this case, to determine (calculate) the estimate, we can use the results of solving a system of linear algebraic equations. In addition, these results allow for the assessment of the stationary state of the basic modules of the technical and risks system in the organization of production at the enterprises of the radio electronic industry. When solving a system of algebraic equations, it is suggested to use the standard approach, namely, the limit transformation of the system of Kolmogorov's differential equations for state probabilities. The article concludes that to assess the impact of technical and economic risks on the effectiveness of the organization of production of enterprises of the electronic industry, it is necessary to assess the likelihood of finding a system of technical and economic risks in the state of their implementation. The results of such an assessment will allow to determine two main components - the intensity of the events' flows associated with the emergence (implementation) of technical and economic risks and the time (duration) of their finding in the state of realization (negative state).
Highlights
Введение Анализ современных условий организации про‐ изводства показал, что для повышения эффектив‐ ности функционирования промышленных пред‐ приятий необходимо учитывать и прогнозировать технические и экономические риски [1,2,3]
При этом для определения оценки можно использовать результаты решения этого множества систем ли‐ нейных алгебраических уравнений
To determine the estimate, we can use the results of solving a system of linear algebraic equations
Summary
Нехватка или некачественная подготовка кадрового состава Нарушение технологических процессов организации производства Производство низкокачественной конечной продукции Нарушения в процессе организации производственного процесса Пропуск продукции низкого качества или брака Срыв продолжительности производственных циклов Уменьшение количества произведенной продукции Изменение (увеличение) себестоимости продукции
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