Construction of Marginal Effect Model for Reliability Improvement of Urban Distribution Network

Abstract

With the development of the social economy in China, China’s power grid is facing severe challenges. In addition to effective supply, the more important thing is to provide the reliability of the power supply for the existing distribution network. The power supply reliability of the distribution network directly affects the safety and reliability of power users, and also relates to the development of power supply enterprises. To realize the safer and more stable operation and development of urban distribution networks, this paper researches the construction of a reliability enhancement marginal effect model of urban distribution networks. By determining the factors that affect the reliability of distribution network operation, the marginal benefit model is selected to construct the index. The specific value of the index and the boundary conditions of the model are set. The reliability improvement marginal benefit curve is analyzed in depth; and finally, the specific value of the reliability index marginal benefit is calculated. The new model is applied to the distribution network in the old urban area of a city, and the relationship between each index and reliability and marginal benefit is clarified. According to the analysis results, the future construction and development direction of the distribution network in the old urban area of the city is fully clarified, and the path scheme of reliability improvement is given according to the degree of urgency. Through the use of the marginal effect model, it can provide a more effective reference for the improvement of national distribution network reliability and the decision-making of distribution network construction planning projects.