Construction duration predictive model based on factorial analysis and fuzzy logic

Luiz Maurício Furtado Maués,José Alberto Silva De Sá,André Augusto Azevedo Montenegro Duarte,Carlos Tavares Da Costa Junior,Andrea Parise Kern

doi:10.1590/s1678-86212019000400346

Abstract

Abstract Setting the building construction duration for vertical residential works is made still in the study phase of economic and financial feasibility of the project and, in most cases, in an empirical way, increasing the uncertainties and the risks to fulfill the set deadline. However, there are computational intelligence tools that can contribute to reduce the degree of uncertainty. This study aimed to investigate the use of a hybrid system to estimate the deadline for vertical residential building works from design and production characteristics using factorial analysis and Fuzzy Systems. To this end, we used information of a database from the SEURB and in some buildings construction companies in Belém, a city located in the State of Pará, northern of Brazil. For the training and construction of the Fuzzy Forecast Model, data from 71 projects were used and 16 others residential buildings were used for its validation. The results showed a significant level of assertiveness, with 75% accuracy considering a range, whose upper and lower limits were calculated from MAPE and MASE. The model presented a prediction performance superior to other models already consecrated in the literature.

Highlights

Setting the construction duration of a real estate project can be considered an arduous and often imprecise task, influenced by a vast number of variables
In view of the above: (a) this article presents as a highlight the use of a Fuzzy system combined with the method of factorial analysis to estimate the duration of vertical works, using as independent variables physical characteristics and management of real estate projects; and (b) this article is composed by a conceptual review on prediction of the execution time of works and decision making based on fuzzy logic, described the method used to elaborate the model, are discussed the results found and the conclusions of this research
The research consisted of a case study based on quantitative and qualitative information of residential buildings from several construction companies operating in Northern Brazil, in order to propose a hybrid modeling method based on factorial analysis and Fuzzy systems to assist decision makers to forecasting the construction duration of vertical residential works still at the stage of analysis of economic and financial feasibility of the project

Summary

Introduction

Setting the construction duration of a real estate project can be considered an arduous and often imprecise task, influenced by a vast number of variables. Construction projects involve risks at all stages of development (ZAVADSKAS; TURSKIS; TAMOSAITIENE, 2010; AHMADI et al, 2017; TAVAKOLAN; ETEMADINIA, 2017). In this way, before deciding on the accomplishment of a real estate launch, economic and financial feasibility studies are usually conducted. In order to stipulate the construction duration, it is collected information on customer needs, construction projects, technical specifications, quantity of services to be executed, constructive method, among other aspects, depending on the nature of the development. The completion periods are calculated from the planner’s own previous experience in similar projects (CHAN; CHAN, 2003)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion