Construction and validation of web-based nomograms for detecting and prognosticating in prostate adenocarcinoma with bone metastasis

Abstract

Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the most common sites of metastasis in prostate adenocarcinoma (PA). PA with BM can significantly diminish patients’ quality of life and result in a poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to establish two web-based nomograms to estimate the risk and prognosis of BM in PA patients. From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, data on 308,332 patients diagnosed with PA were retrieved retrospectively. Logistic and Cox regression, respectively, were used to determine independent risk and prognostic factors. Then, We constructed two web-based nomograms and the results were validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) , and the Kaplan-Meier analyses. The independent risk factors for BM in PA patients included race, PSA, ISUP, T stage, N stage, brain, liver, lung metastasis, surgery, radiation and chemotherapy. The independent prognostic predictors for overall survival (OS) were age, marital status, PSA, ISUP and liver metastasis. Both nomograms could effectively predict risk and prognosis of BM in PA patients according to the results of ROC curves, calibration, and DCA in the training and validation sets. And the Kaplan-Meier analysis illustrated that the prognostic nomogram could significantly distinguish the population with different survival risks. We successfully constructed the two web-based nomograms for predicting the incidence of BM and the prognosis of PA patients with BM, which may assist clinicians in optimizing the establishment of individualized treatment programs and enhancing patients’ prognoses.