Predictive models for the risk and prognosis of bone metastasis in patients with newly-diagnosed esophageal cancer: A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a common malignant tumor worldwide, and patients with both EC and bone metastasis (BM) have a poor prognosis. We aimed to determine the risk and prognostic factors for BM in patients with newly diagnosed EC and to conduct two nomograms to predict the probability of BM and overall survival after BM. Data from patients with EC from 2010 to 2015 were reviewed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We divided participants into training and validation cohorts using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and Cox regression models to explore the risk and prognostic factors of BM, respectively. Moreover, two nomograms were developed for predicting the risk and prognosis of BM in patients with EC. Then we used receiver operating characteristic curves, decision curve analysis, and calibration curves to evaluate the nomogram models. The overall survival of patients with EC and BM was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. A total of 10,730 patients with EC were involved, 735 of whom had BM at the time of diagnosis. Histologic type, sex, age, N stage, primary site, liver, lung, and brain metastases, and tumor differentiation grade were identified as independent BM risk factors. Histological type, chemotherapy, brain, liver, and lung metastases were identified as prognostic risk factors for patients with EC and BM. We developed diagnostic and prognostic nomograms according to the results. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration, and Kaplan-Meier curves, and decision curve analysis all indicated that both nomograms had great clinical predictive ability and good clinical application potential. Two novel nomograms were constructed to predict the risk and prognosis of BM in patients with EC. These prediction models can effectively assist clinicians in clinical decision-making based on their good accuracy and reliability.