Construction and internal validation of a novel nomogram for predicting prognosis of infective endocarditis

Abstract

To develop a nomogram prediction model capable of early identification of high-risk infective endocarditis (IE) patients. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 383 patients with IE and divided them into survival and non-survival groups according to different hospitalization outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to screen independent risk factors affecting the survival outcome of IE, and a Nomogram prediction model was constructed by these factors. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was applied to assess the model fit, the discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated by plotting ROC curves and calibration curves. Advanced age, embolic symptoms, abnormal leukocyte count, low hemoglobin level and double-sided IE were associated with higher in-hospital mortality in patients with IE (P < 0.05). The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the model was χ2 = 7.107, P = 0.311. The AUC of the ROC curve of the model was 0.738 (95% CI 0.677–0.800). The bootstrap method was used to validate the prediction model. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model in the validation cohort was 0.842. The nomogram prediction model can accurately predict the in-hospital mortality risk of IE and can help clinicians identify high-risk IE patients early.