Constraints on Fossil Fuel Use

Abstract

The exponential growth of fossil fuel use over recent decades has resulted in a 4.3 percent annual increase in the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere. The question addressed here is: When (and to what extent) will constraints limit the use of fossil fuels and the subsequent production of CO2? We discuss three types of possible constraints: resource constraints, fuel demand constraints, and environmental constraints. An analysis of the next 50 years suggests that resource constraints will not provide severe limits. The impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not reach levels that cause mankind to take action soon. Fuel-demand constraints will probably limit the use of fossil fuels to levels that keep the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration below 450 ppm(v) for the next 50 years. In spite of this conclusion we see a continuing, long term problem and urge that full efforts be made to understand and continually monitor the CO2 problem and to be alert to any changes that may require action.