THE INCREASING CONCENTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2: HOW MUCH, WHEN, AND WHY?

Abstract

There is now a sense that the world community has achieved a broad consensus that: 1.) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasing, 2.) this increase is due largely to the combustion of fossil fuels, and 3.) this increase is likely to lead to changes in the global climate. This consensus is sufficiently strong that virtually all countries are involved in trying to achieve a functioning agreement on how to confront, and mitigate, these changes in climate. This paper reviews the first two of these components in a quantitative way. We look at the data on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and on the magnitude of fossil-fuel combustion, and we examine the trends in both. We review the extent to which cause and effect can be demonstrated between the trends in fossil-fuel burning and the trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Finally, we look at scenarios for the future use of fossil fuels and what these portend for the future of atmospheric chemistry. Along the way we examine how and where fossil fuels are used on the Earth and some of the issues that are raised by any effort to reduce fossil-fuel use.