CONSTRAINING THE MASSES AND THE NON-RADIAL DRAG COEFFICIENT OF A SOLAR CORONAL MASS EJECTION

Abstract

Decades of observations show that CMEs can deflect from a purely radial trajectory yet no consensus exists as to the cause of these deflections. Many of theories attribute the CME deflection to magnetic forces. We developed ForeCAT (Kay et al. 2013, Kay et al. 2015), a model for CME deflections based solely on magnetic forces, neglecting any reconnection effects. Here we compare ForeCAT predictions to the observed deflection of the 2008 December 12 CME and find that ForeCAT can accurately reproduce the observations. Multiple observations show that this CME deflected nearly 30{\deg} in latitude (Byrne et al. 2010, Gui et al. 2011) and 4.4{\deg} in longitude (Gui et al. 2011). From the observations, we are able to constrain all of the ForeCAT input parameters (initial position, radial propagation speed, and expansion) except the CME mass and the drag coefficient that affects the CME motion. By minimizing the reduced chi-squared, $\chi^2_{\nu}$, between the ForeCAT results and the observations we determine an acceptable mass range between 4.5x10$^{14}$ and 1x10$^{15}$ g and the drag coefficient less than 1.4 with a best fit at 7.5x10$^{14}$ g and 0 for the mass and drag coefficient. ForeCAT is sensitive to the magnetic background and we are also able to constrain the rate at which the quiet sun magnetic field falls to be similar or to or fall slightly slower than the Potential Field Source Surface model.