Abstract
AbstractWe investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for the period 2003–2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. We combine satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS with prior assumptions characterizing the underlying geophysical processes. We run three experiments based on two different assumptions to study possible solutions to the mass balance. We solve for trends in surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The first assumption assigns low probability to ice dynamic mass loss in regions of slow flow, giving a mean dynamic trend of 17 ± 10 Gt yr−1 and a total mass imbalance of 57 ± 20 Gt yr−1. The second assumption considers a long‐term dynamic thickening hypothesis and an a priori solution for surface mass balance from a regional climate model. The latter results in estimates 3 to 5 times larger for the ice dynamic trends but similar total mass imbalance. In both cases, gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica.
Highlights
A team of glaciologists and statisticians from the University of Bristol in the UK and the University of Wollongong in Australia have investigated the mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Two processes are known to be responsible for changes in mass of the Antarctic ice sheet: (i) surface mass balance, and (ii) ice sheet dynamics
The first scenario assumed that changes in ice mass driven by ice movement are less likely, though not impossible, in areas where the ice moves most slowly
Summary
Increased ice mass in East Antarctica does not offset losses in the West A team of glaciologists and statisticians from the University of Bristol in the UK and the University of Wollongong in Australia have investigated the mass balance (i.e. the gain and loss of ice) of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Altimetry data indicates regions where ice is thickening or thinning.
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