Consolidated layer thickness in probabilistic simulation of first-year ice ridges

Abstract

This research study focuses on resolving the issue of sparse data and information required for the probabilistic assessment of ice ridge loads in offshore structures in Arctic regions. The study introduces the consolidated layer thickness into the simulation of ice ridge loads. Through the analysis of seasonal development of level ice draft, ridge keel draft, and ridge frequency, conclusions were drawn on the timing of ridge creation. The data used for this analysis was obtained from ice profiling sonars located in the Beaufort Sea. An analytical approach was established to estimate the probability density function of ridge formation timing, which was then used to simulate ridge age, determine an analytical formulation for consolidated layer growth, and investigate its thickness properties. The study found a negative correlation between consolidated layer thickness and ridge keel draft, which contradicts the previously held assumption in the literature that these variables are not related. This research establishes a framework for probabilistic simulation of ice ridge systems characterized by certain parameters, such as ridge keel draft, level ice draft, ridge frequency, and consolidated layer thickness, which facilitates maintaining the correlations between the parameters in the simulation.