Abstract
This research is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of climate change in the Amu Darya river basin using the global climate model and observational data. And also, the purpose of the study is to scale down and correct the offset of the GCF and adaptation to the Amu Darya river basin and assess the dynamic climate change and its future predictions of the impact on the hydraulic structures of the Amu Darya river basin. The offset correction was carried out on the basis of data from open sources from the archives of the world meteorological organizations and the analysis performed for the next 100 years. The article analyzes the results of the regions affected by the climate [1] from the point of view of the reduction of water resources, the disappearance of glaciers, an increase in temperature, and a decrease in precipitation. An increase in temperature leads to a steady decrease in the area of large glaciers, while small glaciers gradually completely disappear and a change in the ratio of solid and liquid precipitation alternately, which leads to a reduction in snow cover and is also accompanied by degradation and melting of snow cover permafrost in high mountain areas. For future projections of glacier area and melt water release, glacier volume is required. Climate change affects the hydrological regime of the river; this process worsens the operational regime of hydraulic structures in the Amu Darya basin. Such changes in glaciation, snow cover, and permafrost negatively affect the change in river flow and its distribution and the ecological assessment of the quality of the environment. Therefore, the study of changes in climatic conditions in the region and the development of climate change scenarios for the XXI century is carried out following the recommendations of the IPCC using the necessary programs.
Highlights
In modern conditions and in the future, the shortage of water resources in Central Asia is seen as one of the main limiting factors for developing the countries of the region
This study aims to study climate change and future projections for the Amu Darya basin
The Amu Darya basin, the largest river basin in Central Asia in terms of a catchment area, covers an area of 1,326,000 km2, of which 1,017,835 km2 falls on the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, which are hydrographically related to the large Amu Darya basin
Summary
In modern conditions and in the future, the shortage of water resources in Central Asia is seen as one of the main limiting factors for developing the countries of the region. Intensive climate warming is noted throughout Central Asia and the prospective assessment of the region's water resources, taking into account climate change, shows that none of the considered climate scenarios reflecting warming involves an increase in the available water resources [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. The glaciers of Tajikistan play an important role in the formation of the Amu Darya rivers, which are considered the largest waterways. In this arid region, future impacts of climate change could directly impact glacier volumes, food sources, and river flows [812]
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