Assessment of Amu Darya Runoff Changes as a Result of Predicted Climate Change and Reduced Glaciation

Abstract

The task of assessing the water resources of the Central Asian Rivers and their forecast under the influence of economic activity and climate change is very important in modern conditions. Water scarcity is the main factor limiting the development of states’ economies and it negatively affects the state of water ecosystems. The results of hydrometeorological monitoring show that currently in the region there are noticeable changes in various components of the climate system, specifically; there is a tendency to warming. Observational data in the Amu Darya river basin and model calculations show a steady decrease in carry-over snow reserves and degradation of glaciers. The task of forecasting changes in the water resources of the Amu Darya River is due to possible climate changes and it is becoming urgent. The value of such estimates will increase every year due to a variety of economic reasons, for example, due to high specific water consumption. To solve the problem of assessing and forecasting the water resources of the mountain regions of Central Asia, an approach is proposed where main provisions include: (1) development of stochastic models of meteorological factors for hydrological calculations and forecasts in various climatic scenarios; (2) statistical simulation of a long-term series of meteorological characteristics in various scenic climatic conditions and calculations of river flows in the Amu Darya basin, taking into account the modern glaciation of the catchment; (3) statistical processing of simulation results and determination of calculated hydrological characteristics based on Bayesian ideology.