Abstract
Land changes in rangeland systems cascade through interconnected social and ecological spheres, affecting both humans and the environment. This study applied a multi-method approach to examine the causes and consequences of change in two rangeland communities in northeastern (NE) Colorado. First, this study used a Random Forest supervised classifier to analyze 36 years of land-cover data and create a land-cover/use change classification model. Second, the research team analyzed transcripts of interviews with 32 ranchers, examining how ranchers’ adaptive strategies influence land-cover change trends. Lastly, the analysis integrated the quantitative and qualitative data, constructing a social–ecological rangeland change conceptual model. This study found that the cultivated area decreased in both study sites from 1984–2019, with 16.0% and 18.7% of each site transitioning out of the cultivated area. Moreover, 10.3% and 18.4% of each site, respectively, transitioned to herbaceous/grassland cover from 1984–2019. The qualitative analysis identified the role of conservation policies, such as open space programs, on land change. Also, despite the relatively small area that transitioned to developed cover—1.83% and 0.183% of each site—participants emphasized that the associated demographic and cultural shifts drive land-use change. This study highlights that while rangelands are undergoing social–ecological change, land-use decisions and land conservation programs can help mitigate the global trend of declining rangeland and grassland cover.
Highlights
Global rangelands are undergoing rapid social and ecological change [1,2]
The land-cover/use classification performed well as per the F1-scores (Table 2) and the Cohen’s kappa scores (Table 3), especially given the number of classes and a spatial extent that included both the shortgrass steppe and the Rocky Mountains
It’s a nice problem in that our property has gone up in value, but we want to stay in agriculture
Summary
Global rangelands are undergoing rapid social and ecological change [1,2]. People have historically viewed these seemingly “residual” lands as available for “productive” use (i.e., cultivation, urban and exurban development) [2,3]. 2) writes that “what unites rangelands is less what they are than what they are not,” with rangelands being an aggregation of all land types that do not fit into other land-cover classes [4]. Rangelands are social–ecological systems (SESs) where humans are both embedded within and affect ecosystems and vice versa [5,6,7]. Rangeland SESs encompass vibrant cultures, often politically marginalized societies, and globally essential and imperiled biodiversity hotspots [4]. Land-use decisions flow between the social and ecological spheres, affecting both humans and the environment
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