Conserving Iberian Lynx in Europe: Issues and challenges

Abstract

The world's most endangered feline species; the Iberian Lynx has suffered severe population decline and is now on the verge of extinction despite recovery plans. In this paper, an attempt has been made to understand the extinction dynamics of this endangered cat species. The paper focuses on the spread of rabbit haemorrhagic disease in the European rabbit population and its effect on the survival of the Iberian Lynx. A qualitative analysis of an eco-epidemiological model with simple law of mass action and Holling type II functional response is carried out.Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established and shown to be uniformly bounded. The basic reproduction number R0 is obtained and the occurrence of a backward bifurcation at R0=1 is shown to be possible using central manifold theory. The global stability of endemic equilibrium is established using a geometric approach. Criteria for diffusion-driven instability caused by local random movements of European rabbits and Iberian Lynx are obtained. Detailed analysis of Turing patterns formation selected by the reaction-diffusion system under zero flux boundary conditions is presented. We found that diffusion coefficients and transmission rate have appreciable influence on spatial spread of the epidemic. Numerical simulation results confirm the analytical finding and generate beautiful patterns that are consistent with the field observations and suggest that Iberian Lynx might have become extinct from Portugal and neighbouring countries. Suggestions for disease eradication and its control which in turn may increase the population of Iberian Lynx are discussed.