Consequential Damage and Nuclear Deterrence

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We present a geometric generalization of the Intriligator-Brito deterrence/attack model that can accomodate a variety of assumptions about the effectiveness of weapons. Our analysis implies that empirical consideration of weapons effectiveness is crucial to strategic application of the model. We also incorporate consequential damage into the model, i.e., destruction that is not relatively immediate, but is realized over long periods of time after war has broken out. We find that consequential damage significantly alters the deterrence/attack interpretations applied to relative and absolute weapons stocks in a nuclear deterrence relationship.