Consequences of the restructuring of loans in Swiss francs in Poland in the light of consumer protection

Abstract

Aim: The subject of the paper is to discuss the consequences of the changes in the legislation on mortgage loans in Swiss francs, proposed by the Polish Sejm in August 2015, to the situation in the banking sector and the economy. The topic is important because of the potential impact of such changes on Polish banking industry, and indirectly lower GDP growth rate. Design: The article tries to assess consequences for the sector in next 5 years using set of quantitative and qualitative indicators. Author utilized literature review, experts’ opinions selection, and desk research on statistics data. Conclusions / findings: The author concludes that legislators proposal will bring negative impact of PLN >1 bn net income of the banking industry a year in next 5 years. However, if the legislation will be passed according to KNF’s feedback, most of these costs will be mitigated due to spreading banks’ losses over many years. The paper might be interested to banking and public sector analysts, as it brings a new opinion in the ongoing discussion. However, it is one of several voices in the public debate. Originality / value of the article: The paper brings implications to the legislators and public sector observes, serving as an independent analyze of the topic. Its main limitation is lack of granular quantitative losses estimation for banks, based on a scenario approach, which could add more value added to banking analysts, helping them benchmark their internal assessments.