Abstract
Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.
Highlights
The COP21 Paris Agreement is arguably a defining moment in the quest to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and reduce the risks and impacts of climate change (Jacquet and Jamieson 2016, Peters 2016, Schellnhuber et al 2016)
We have assessed projected changes in precipitation and temperature that are based on daily temperature and precipitation data in Central Africa as simulated in the framework CORDEX-Africa project under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios
Robust signal is associated to agreement of more that 80% (20 of 25 Regional Climate Model (RCM)) of model in the sign of the change and the signal to ratio greater than one
Summary
The COP21 Paris Agreement is arguably a defining moment in the quest to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and reduce the risks and impacts of climate change (Jacquet and Jamieson 2016, Peters 2016, Schellnhuber et al 2016). The Paris Agreement issued an invitation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. This has opened the debate on the need to sharpen climate science research, from discussing the drivers of climate change, to assessing climate influence on the habitability of the Earth and its regions (Hulme 2016, Marotzke et al 2017, Schleussner et al 2017). The IPCC accepted the invitation at its 43rd Session (11–13 April 2016, Nairobi, Kenya), noting the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty
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