Abstract
A common assumption is that belief in conspiracy theories and supernatural phenomena are grounded in illusory pattern perception. In the present research we systematically tested this assumption. Study 1 revealed that such irrational beliefs are related to perceiving patterns in randomly generated coin toss outcomes. In Study 2, pattern search instructions exerted an indirect effect on irrational beliefs through pattern perception. Study 3 revealed that perceiving patterns in chaotic but not in structured paintings predicted irrational beliefs. In Study 4, we found that agreement with texts supporting paranormal phenomena or conspiracy theories predicted pattern perception. In Study 5, we manipulated belief in a specific conspiracy theory. This manipulation influenced the extent to which people perceive patterns in world events, which in turn predicted unrelated irrational beliefs. We conclude that illusory pattern perception is a central cognitive mechanism accounting for conspiracy theories and supernatural beliefs.
Highlights
It has frequently been suggested that irrational beliefs are rooted in pattern perception, that is, the automatic tendency to make sense of the world by identifying meaningful relationships between stimuli (Zhao, Hahn, & Osherson, 2014)
As indicated by the fact that 0 was not in the 95% confidence interval, bootstrapping analyses (5000 samples) utilizing the “MEDIATE” macro by Hayes and Preacher (2014) revealed a significant indirect effect on all three dependent variables: for belief in existing conspiracy theories, (B = 0.04, SE = 0.02) CI95%[0.01; 0.09], for belief in fictitious conspiracy theories (B = 0.05, SE = 0.02) CI95%[0.02; 0.11], and for supernatural beliefs (B = 0.05, SE = 0.02) CI95%[0.01; 0.10]. These findings suggest that whereas the intuitive pattern search manipulation did not exert a direct effect on irrational beliefs, it did exert an indirect effect on all three dependent variables through pattern perception
Bootstrapping analyses (5000 samples) utilizing the MEDIATE macro (Hayes & Preacher, 2014) revealed a significant indirect effect for all three dependent variables: for belief in existing conspiracy theories (B = 0.05, SE = 0.02) CI95%[0.01; 0.10]; for belief in a fictitious conspiracy theory (B = 0.05, SE = 0.02) CI95%[0.01; 0.11]; and for supernatural beliefs (B = 0.03, SE = 0.01) CI95%[0.004; 0.06]. These findings reveal that being exposed to a conspiracy theory increased the extent to which people perceive patterns in world events, which in turn predicts a range of unrelated irrational beliefs
Summary
It has frequently been suggested that irrational beliefs are rooted in pattern perception, that is, the automatic tendency to make sense of the world by identifying meaningful relationships between stimuli (Zhao, Hahn, & Osherson, 2014). This is a functional process, as it enables people to recognize basic patterns that are real, Illusory pattern perception. Illusory pattern perception occurs when people mistakenly perceive randomly generated stimuli as causally determined through a nonrandom process, and as diagnostic for what future stimuli to expect. The bird behaves as if there were a causal relation between its behavior and the presentation of food, such a relation is lacking” (p. 171)
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