Abstract
Do regional wars occur as a result of external, systemic influences, in the absence of genuine issues of regional discord? Do the internal properties of regions adequately explain patterns of regional conflict? Can internal and systemic influences be combined to form an empirically compelling, yet theoretically coherent explanation of regional conflict? We examine conflict in the Balkans from the attainment of Greek independence in 1830 to the Balkan wars of 1912 and 1913 to gain some insight into these questions. Describing conflict outcomes as ranging between ‘warm peace' and ‘hot war’, we derive a prediction of the level of conflict from two independent variables — the state-to-nation balance and the nature of great power involvement in a given area. Our analysis suggests that, by integrating these two variables, we can provide an empirically sound yet theoretically concise explanation of where, when, and in what form conflict erupted in the region.
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