Confirmatory Analysis of the Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on Ecosystem Service Value Variation Based on the Structural Equation Model—A Case Study in Sichuan Province

Abstract

Understanding the regional distribution characteristics of ecological service values (ESV) and their driving factors can provide background information and scientific basis for regional environmental protection policy. This paper adopted the revised equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV of Sichuan province in 2015 and 2020, and the spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the ESV were identified accordingly. Then, the structural equation model (SEM) was used to explore the effects of socioeconomic factors on ESVs in Sichuan Province. The results show that the ESV in Sichuan Province increased by 2521.45 million USD during the period, an increase of approximately 0.67%. The western area had higher ESV values compared to the eastern area, with eastern Sichuan showing a downward trend and the cities in western Sichuan showing an upward trend. The factors of population, affluence, and science and technology can indirectly affect ESV through affecting land use and cover, and this indirect effect is stronger than the direct effect on regional ESV. Among them, the effect of population is the strongest, followed by affluence, and science and technology is the weakest. The result of this paper also suggests that it is necessary to propose differentiated ecological protection policies in eastern and western Sichuan Province to achieve the coordinated development of society, economy, and environment.