Configuration of forces in the Black Sea after Russian annexation of Crimea

Abstract

The article analyzes the new configuration in the Black Sea after Russian annexation of Crimea. The Black Sea has an important role for Russia to promote its interests in the southern direction. Crimea in this strategy has the role of an important bridgehead. The peninsula has modern coastal and air defense systems that cover the skies over the Crimea and control the airspace of Eastern European countries. The deployment of nuclear weapons in Crimea threatens almost all of Europe. Russia uses factories of the occupied peninsula to build new ships for the Black Sea Fleet. Russia is using the energy factor in the region to attract NATO members to Bulgaria and Turkey. Bulgaria is taking a cautious ambivalent stance, while Turkey is playing its own game with Russia, raising its status in the region. Western analysts’ skepticism about the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the fragmentation of the region make it difficult to formulate a joint NATO strategy to counter Russia. Therefore, the main actions of the Alliance in the region remain the visits of warships, joint exercises and reconnaissance flights, the number of which in 2020 increased by 40%. But this is not enough to curb Russia’s aggressive policy. Therefore, NATO needs to increase its presence in the Black Sea by expanding the format of joint action and intensifying cooperation with partners Ukraine and Georgia. The normalization of US-Turkish relations should play a significant role in the security of the region. Tightening sanctions against the Kremlin and restricting energy cooperation should be an important tool to deter Russia from the collective West.