Abstract
In thermal power plants, the internal combustion engines are constantly subjected to stresses, requiring a continuous monitoring system in order to check their operating conditions. However, most of the time, these monitoring systems only indicate if the monitored parameters are in nonconformity close to the occurrence of a catastrophic failure—they do not allow a predictive analysis of the operating conditions of the machine. In this paper, a statistical model, based on the statistical control process and Nelson Rules, is proposed to analyze the operational conditions of the machine based on the supervisory system data. The statistical model is validated through comparisons with entries of the plant logbook. It is demonstrated that the results obtained with the proposed statistical model match perfectly with the entries of the logbook, showing our model to be a promising tool for making decisions concerning maintenance in the plant.
Highlights
The current stage of evolution of thermal power plants (TPPs), in conjunction with the low reservoir levels of their hydro counterparts, has resulted in the dispatch of TPPs in order to fulfill occasional demand [2]
We present the analytical development of the statistical model (SM) based on thermal power generators of a TPP in Brazil
In order to validate the statistical model (SM), an event that happened on 1 August 2019 at 14:41 in generation unit 05 of a Brazilian thermal power plant (TPP) has been considered
Summary
The current stage of evolution of thermal power plants (TPPs), in conjunction with the low reservoir levels of their hydro counterparts (due to longer periods of high temperatures or droughts [1]), has resulted in the dispatch of TPPs in order to fulfill occasional demand [2]. Due to the ever-increasing penetration of intermittent renewable sources, in combination with the fact that large thermal generation systems may have limited power ramping capability [3], TPPs using internal combustion engines (ICEs) can be dispatched in less time. Inherent factors to thermal power generators (such as the number of start-ups, average load, variation in load and ambient temperature) can increase the levels of stress on the assets [5,6]. This increase on the stress levels may put the asset on the path towards failure. An accumulation of stresses may lead to wear and an increase in the vibration of the unit, decreasing the energy efficiency, decreasing the insulation resistance, increasing the consumption of replacement items, among other situations [7,8], and decreasing the generation reliability in consequence
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