Conceptual Framework for Urban Development Dynamics Dealing with Geo-Environmental Coastal Hazards (On the Northern Coast of the Nile Delta in Egypt)

Abstract

The Geo-Environmental Coastal Hazards (GECH) causing serious damages in many areas around the world, are among the most important hazards due to its numerous effects. The coastal areas are important attractions for populations and activities. These areas are characterized with the phenomenon of sea-level rise that varies in its rate of change at large spatial and temporal scales, so it is difficult to be predicted locally [1]. As a result, the climate changes’ hazards affect the future of urban development processes in coastal areas. Based on the foregoing, the main question of the research is whether the potential effects of hazards have been taken into account while planning the coastal areas in Egypt and their integration into the development approaches or not. Hence, the research emphasizes the concept of dynamism and flexibility of coastal planning that may be compatible with these variables, and may be positively reflected on the urban plans of coastal cities. The research methodology tackles studying, analyzing, and evaluating coastal hazards and their implications on the Egyptian development. The analytical framework discusses the international case studies dealing with hazards from a developmental point of view, to formulate a proposed dynamic framework for developing the Egyptian coastal areas, which are exposed to coastal hazards, taking into account the temporal dimension and expected geo-environmental hazards, which vary according to the Sea Level Rise (SLR) scenarios. This framework is applied in the most dangerous low areas, such as the Egyptian Delta coast, reaching the gap of lacking dynamics and flexible procedures dealing with the changeable coastal geo-environmental hazards over different time periods.