Assessment of climate change impacts and anthropogenic activities on the eastern part of the Nile Delta of Egypt

Abstract

Abstract Climate change and anthropogenic activities could have extensive impacts of coastal areas especially Deltas and lowlands that may be extremely affected by sea level rise and different human activities. According to the IPCC reports, the mean sea levels have been raised between 10 to 20 cm over the last century and expected to rise between 20 to 88 cm at the end of the current century. If no actions are taken, this rise could have extensive effects on coastal areas such as shoreline erosion, submergence of coastal cities and increasing the seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Also, anthropogenic activities including changes in the land use could increase such effects. This study aims to highlight the effect of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The study focusses on the eastern part of the Nile Delta (Port Said governorate) where many changes in the land use have been observed in the last decades. The effect of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the Nile Delta are detected using GIS, RS data and numerical models. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) with ArcGIS are used in monitoring the shoreline change (SLC) based on satellite images for 50 years from 1974 to 2023. GIS is used to monitor shoreline changes and forecast future changes for the next 10 and 20 years. The results indicated that the shoreline had shifted inland with varying values along the coasts between 1974 and 2023, and the predictions indicated that it would continue to shift in 2034 and 2044. The rate of shoreline loss was 14 m/year from 1974 to 2000 and 16 m/year from 2001 to 2023 and predicted to be 12 m/year from 2023 to 2044. RS and GIS are used for investigating the land use changes (LUC) over the last 50 years for the period from 1974 to 2023 based on satellite images that were geometrically corrected by Supervised Classification to identify LUC in the Nile Delta. The results for the study period from 1974 to 2023 (50 years) reveal that urbanization has increased 18%, vegetation cover has increased 22%, water bodies and fish farms increased 40% and the bare land decreased 60% due to the development of the area in the studied period. The Eastern part of the Nile Delta is enormously affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities which require application of protection measures. Significant changes in shoreline and land cover for the study area were observed in the period from 1974 to 2023. Policy makers may use the results of this study to develop adaptation plans to safeguard the Nile Delta from anthropogenic activities and climate change.Keywords: Climate change, anthropogenic activities, shoreline change (SLC), land use change (LUC), RS and GIS, Nile Delta of Egypt.