Abstract
We present a method for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence when planning for sub-surface infrastructure. Since groundwater drawdown and related subsidence can occur at large distances from the points of inflow, the large spatial extent often implies heterogeneous geological conditions that cannot be described in complete detail. This calls for estimation of uncertainties in all components of the cause-effect chain with probabilistic methods. In this study, we couple four probabilistic methods into a comprehensive model for economic risk quantification: a geostatistical soil-stratification model, an inverse calibrated groundwater model, an elasto-plastic subsidence model, and a model describing the resulting damages and costs on individual buildings and constructions. Groundwater head measurements, hydraulic tests, statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties and an inventory of buildings are inputs to the models. In the coupled method, different design alternatives for risk reduction measures are evaluated. Integration of probabilities and damage costs result in an economic risk estimate for each alternative. Compared with the risk for a reference alternative, the best prior alternative is identified as the alternative with the highest expected net benefit. The results include spatial probabilistic risk estimates for each alternative where areas with significant risk are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modelling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned railway tunnel in Varberg, Sweden.
Highlights
Sub-surface projects are generally constructed in materials formed and impacted by complex geological and anthropogenic processes (Lundman 2011), creating highlyElectronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Box 460, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden 4 Present Address: Swedish Transport Administration, 405 33 Gothenburg, Sweden uncertain and variable ground conditions
We present a method for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence when planning for subsurface infrastructure
The procedure is comprehensive since the entire chain of events, from the initiating groundwater drawdown to the resulting consequences are considered together with parameter uncertainties in all parts
Summary
Box 460, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden 4 Present Address: Swedish Transport Administration, 405 33 Gothenburg, Sweden uncertain and variable ground conditions. These conditions can result in a wide range of risks including groundwater drawdown induced subsidence initiated by groundwater leakage into the sub-surface constructions. There are many examples where groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence have led to severe consequences, e.g. Shanghai (Xue et al 2005), Mexico City (Ortega-Guerrero et al 1999), Bangkok (Phien-wej et al 2006), Las Vegas (Burbey 2002), Los Angeles (Bryan et al 2018) and the Scandinavian cities Stockholm, Gothenburg and Oslo (Karlsrud 1999; Olofsson 1994). The cause-effect chain from groundwater leakage, subsidence and resulting damage and cost is an interaction between several processes.
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