Comprehensive risk assessment of electric power market reform

Abstract

Keywords: Electricity market reform; Risk assessment; Cost - Benefit Analysis; Lucas Critique . Abstract. With the development of market economy, complexity of market environment, strengthening legal supervision, increased operational risk and competition and other reasons, risk awareness has gradually increased in more and more industries and enterprise, therefore risk management is increasingly paid attention to. Electricity market is an important part of the electric power industry, and it is an important means of optimizing resource allocation in large scale and achieving energy strategy layout. To promote the construction and development of UHV power grid, which as the backbone of a strong smart grid, adapt to a wide range of clean energy access, meet the demand side of the market, improve energy conservation requirements and other market-based mechanisms, trade patterns of electricity inevitably toward diversification direction, electricity trading range will be gradually expanded. However, the transformation of the company's development also have put forward higher requirements to cross inter-provincial electricity trade optimal allocation of resources, standard construction of the trading system, electricity market service and company's operations and decision-making. In order to prevent and resolve power market trading risk at work effectively, to further promote the two transformations, have launched a comprehensive risk assessment work in the electricity market is particularly important. Combined with electricity market reform and feature analysis, this paper is mainly to solve electricity market reform program, electricity market building programs, based on the design and implementation of trading variety to proof scientific, repeatedly balance the pros and cons, analyzing who is the main benefit, who is impaired subjects, the adjustment of interests whether fair, what is the cost of reform ,what is the benefit of reform ,and how about the risk. Using cost - benefit analysis, quantitative impact estimates, and stress tests to do comprehensive risk assessment for a variety of electricity market reform program, scientific planning, do proactively plan, improve the scientific and standardization level of electricity market reform program, try to minimize the risk of electricity market reform program.