Comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the water resource carrying capacity in Wuhan City based on the “human–water–city” framework: Past, present and future

Abstract

Given China's rapid urbanization process, the study of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) has important theoretical and practical significance for urban sustainable development. In this paper, a “human–water–city” (HWC) framework was proposed that offers a comprehensive consideration of the development of human society, water quality and quantity, and the progress of urban construction. Based on this framework, we established an HWC evaluation indicator system and constructed the WRCC-HWC approach, to assess, compare, and forecast the WRCC. Taking Wuhan, China, as an example, principal component analysis (PCA) was adopted to evaluate the current (2009–2019) and future (2020–2030) WRCC-HWC. Specifically, global climate models (GCMs) and a grey model, GM (1,1), were used to forecast the value of the future index system. The results show that the WRCC-HWC in Wuhan gradually increased from −3.04 to 3.23 during 2009–2019, being mainly affected by the income of urban residents, per capita GDP, reuse ratio of water used by industry, built-up area, and the output value of new and high-tech industry. With a rapid growth rate from 2011 to 2016, the WRCC-HWC reached the Grade I (excellent) state in 2016. In addition, the forecast results show that, with the exceptions of precipitation and good air quality rate, all HWC indicators show upward trends from 2020 to 2030 in Wuhan. In particular, the per capita disposable income of urban residents (N1), per capita GDP (N2), and the output value of new and high-tech industry (N11) have faster growth rates, with relative growth rates from 2020 to 2030 exceeding 100%. Correspondingly, the WRCC-HWC from 2020 to 2030 were predicted to grow steadily each year, with a higher absolute growth rate starting in 2025. This study supports a comprehensive understanding of the current and future situation for WRCC-HWC in Wuhan and can provide a reference for the formulation of scientific and sustainable development strategies.